Coronavirus Epidemic Update 5: Mortality Rate vs SARS / Influenza

By Adem Lewis / in , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , /

welcome to another MedCram update on
the coronavirus for January 29 2020 and overnight what we’ve been looking at is
the number of deaths reported has gone from 106 to 132 and the number of
confirmed cases has gone to 5000 974 that’s about a 32% increase the number
of confirmed cases overnight now I want to make sure that we put this in
perspective because it’s easy to kind of get lost in this there is a little bit
of a probably misunderstanding in terms of how accurate these numbers are if
anything these numbers are probably underrepresented and that could be a
good thing or it could be a bad thing and I say that with a little bit of
trepidation in terms of being misunderstood but if you’re looking here
you’re gonna see that there is a ratio okay if you look at the number of deaths
– the number of confirmed cases you’re gonna get a general mortality rate of
about 2.3 percent here on this particular day versus the most recent
data that we have is about the same at 2.2 percent here’s the thing both the
numerator here and the denominator need to be confirmed by testing to confirm
that this is specifically from the 2019 corona virus and it’s possible that
we’re under counting in these areas in fact I think everybody agrees that we’re
under counting here there’s probably more deaths than 132 and there’s
probably more than 5000 974 confirmed cases the question is is where are we
missing it a death is a pretty obvious thing it’s
hard to miss the only question about whether or not it’s from this virus or
another particular virus but it’s really possible and if you think about it there
could be cases out there of corona virus that are completely missed and they’re
in asymptomatic individuals who maybe just got a little bit of a cold and they
may be completely asymptomatic which means that this number may be far larger
it could be 50 thousand in which case this mortality rate is going to be much
much lower then is being reported here so keep that
in mind that’s a possibility furthermore if you’ve looked at some of
our other videos and specifically why the corona virus can kill and how it
kills we talked a lot about ard s obviously not everybody that gets corona
virus goes into ard S which is acute respiratory distress syndrome in fact of
all of these cases there’s only a fraction that end up in the hospital and
of those there’s only a fraction that needs to go to the ICU and there there’s
a fraction that get a RDS and some of those end up dying I think in the most
recent Lancet article of those that ended up in the hospital that were
confirmed to be cases the mortality there was about 15% so that doesn’t mean
that 15% of people who get corona virus infections are going to die it just
means those that are sick enough that end up in the hospital they may go on to
get a RDS 15% of those at least in The Lancet article pass away okay and so to
put this in perspective let’s look at SARS now SARS as you may recall was
another variant of corona virus it was a different mutation and it had come from
bats and total over about a year to period of time the number of deaths in
that was 774 and the total at number of infections was 8090 eight confirmed
cases that was for SARS in 2002 so you can see here when we’re looking at the
numbers already for corona virus these numbers are getting up there fairly
quickly and we’re only just a number of weeks into this epidemic okay so what
are they doing about this well famously you may know that china is
actually working on building a 1,000 bed hospital in about ten days and it’s
actually quite interesting to look at we’ll post in the description below a
link of a live webcam that you can look at on YouTube as they are actually
building this hospital and just a few days ago it was a big feel the dirt and
now they’ve already poured the concrete slab and they believe that
day morning they’ll be admitting their first patients to that hospital so
that’s quite remarkable but we wanted to get into some other numbers about what’s
going on outside of China and what about this person-to-person transmission
because we’ve got some updates there as well so as it stands right now in the
United States there are about five confirmed cases two of them in Southern
California by the way there is a little side note to this that we had talked
about about 240 people are being transported back these are diplomats and
there is a chartered plane that is traveling back from China that is going
to land in Anchorage and then was scheduled to fly down to Ontario
International Airport in Southern California where they would be screened
that has slightly changed and that is going to be going to March Air Force
Reserve which was March Air Force Base that is in Riverside County that has
been a last-minute change but probably a better choice from a political
standpoint because these people are going to be monitored at a Air Force
Base that was turned into our Air Force Reserve Base as opposed to a fully
functional civilian airports now something that is concerning is the
recent story in Germany and this is a story where a woman from China who was
asymptomatic and visited in Germany was not symptomatic until apparently she
flew back on the plane to China and it was only after that that the man who had
never traveled to China was found and confirmed to have the corona virus that
is a concern for a couple of reasons number one it’s the first evidence that
we have outside of China of human-to-human transmission number one
number two it seems as though this transmission occurred when the woman was
asymptomatic fortunately we can say this at this point that none of the deaths
involved with corona virus have occurred outside of China at this point and if
you look at the number of cases that are being reported including the United
States there are about 73 confirmed cases outside of China as
January 29 and in all of those cases there have been no deaths so this sort
of goes along with the possibility that we may be under estimating the
denominator in the mortality rate and that that denominator is possibly far
larger than we know and therefore would be a bad thing of course in terms of the
number of people who might be infected but as more and more people are infected
and the number of deaths stay the same the mortality rate goes down something
to think about and also something to put in perspective as we talked about the
number of people to date that have died as a result of coronavirus is 132 that
is in Contra distinction – let’s just look at the regular flu in California
which is where I practice medicine and specifically we’re having a real issue
right now with the h1n1 flu from 2009 and I’ve seen a number of those patients
on ventilators in a RDS here in the last couple of weeks where I work and
California State Public Health Department put out that the number of
deaths from the flu this year in the state of California have doubled from
the previous year and we are already up to a hundred and forty nine deaths so
just the number of deaths from the regular flu in California is more than
the number of deaths worldwide for corona virus if of course you believe
what they’re telling you in China but just again to put this in perspective so
thank you for joining us for this update more updates as they come hopefully
better news as we go and hopefully we start to see a slowdown of the number of
reported cases and also the number of reported deaths of course thank you for
joining us

100 thoughts on “Coronavirus Epidemic Update 5: Mortality Rate vs SARS / Influenza

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  2. 8:10 so the flu in california has killed more people than corona did yet outside China, so that is your good news doctor ??????
    I dont trust this Channel at all

  3. While a higher number of cases would result in a lower death rate, it also means there are more carriers in the population, and thus, those who ARE vulnerable have a greater chance of finding the virus. In that case, the ultimate number of deaths could be higher than with a the current "death rate" based on current number of cases.

  4. Bless you ! If you diss China in China you wont last long. No-one is going to report bad news over there. All figures are utterly meaningless and can be ignored.

  5. I think it doesnt matter if the death ratio is smaller than SARS and Flu. ANY potential epidemic must be dealt immediately. You just can't confirm how many people have been really infected or died, because many reasons. For example, fake official news from China, WHO doesn't take immediate action, afraid of the global economy plummeted. The virus won't wait for us to be prepared. Stay safe everyone, be healthy, wear masks EVEN when your country no where near China. God help us.

  6. Why would the mortality rate be Deaths / Confirmed? People don't die at the moment they find out they have the virus. Why is it not Deaths / (Deaths + Recoveries)? John Hopkins's website also shows Recoveries. Where is this data coming from and why is it not used to calculate the mortality rate? Because if we used that formula, the death rate becomes about 54%. Scary, no? I also understand that the time to die from the virus could be a lot less than the time to recover, which would lower the death rate, but still the Death / Confirmed formula seems like the very wrong way to calculate the death rate.

  7. there could be asymptomatic cases that are completely missed, but the death could also be missed because they are not confirmed cases, so both the numerator and the denominator may be higher.

  8. I heard it's got a patent and made in a lab. Does it matter now? All 'leaders' of the world and their dirty scientists should go home and stay there.

  9. if u wanna see the real news about corona leave youtube and clearnet and go to darknet u will kill ur self, ther is like 100x times more deads and confirmed cases, media will never tell u the truth

  10. It bears repeating worldwide that every pathogenic scare is out of proportion of alarm compared with ages old controls that instantly end every pathogenic attack, even at advanced stages of mistreatment.

    That the pre-John D Rockefeller lethal drug global phony synthetic pharmaceutical empire healers used absolutely effective anti pathogens of every stripe is the forbidden stuff of modern ignorant health guides that invade our disease control concepts, and there is Zero validity to assuming those past controls are somehow inferior in any way.

    It is my continuing experiences with microbial pathogens that simple high dose application of natural iodine, 3% and less hydrogen peroxide, zinc+copper 50 mg supplement, topical magnesium chloride brine("magnesium oil), and reduced sugar intake end every pathogen attack within 48 hours, often < 24 hours.

    H2O2 and natural iodine actually provide the immune system and our cell metabolism nutrients that enhance their health, while anerobic pathogen microbes are instantly destroyed. That's hard science fact.

    Not to step on toes here, but all things far more health promoting than big pharma is detailed in many Publications from Dr. Mark Sircus. He terms this timeless health science, 'natural allopathic medicine," the antithesis of the big pharma synthetic allopathic lethal drug empire controlled by the global Rochefeller Group.

    Learn to have little fear as natural disease attacks are blown out of proportion to the timeless ways of natural controls that are 100% effective, far safer than any big pharma drug, and easily available to nearly everyone.

  11. so far there is 213 deaths according to WorldoMeter. Last night it was the same number, so global deaths and all deaths for all countries hasn't gone up for almost 24 hours, meaning treatment was made, or the mortality rate of 2 to 4% is true. And people who get coronavirus and die from it, either are children under 5 or the elderly or people with compromised immune systems (immune systems infected with HIV/AIDS are considered compromised.)

  12. It takes a substantial amount of time to incubate, then get a sick, then go to hospital, then go severe , then go to ICU, where you are on respirator. On respirator, you linger for another x weeks. THEN you die. Then your death is recorded and tallied. You are WAY THE F off in terms of the mortality rate, because the # of cases is racing ahead of the lag time it takes to die. SAME thing happened with SARS. They said 2 or 3% to die. Of course it was if you calculate it the way you do, exactly what they did before. When all the numbers are in and resolved, you have the SARS kill rate and the SARS distribution of death by age. It's not the Black Death, it's 50 Shades of Grey. If you are 25 or younger, you are probably ok, but can spread it. Over 25, add about 1% per year over 25 that it will take you down. The older you are, the darker your shade of grey. All of this is well documented from 2003 on the WHO site and other articles. I was there and watching it closely. This is the same thing, but now transmitting with efficiency approaching or exceeding Spanish Influenza.

  13. Out of curiousity, you mention flu deaths and then compare it with corona but one wonders, those flu deaths you mentioned happened in a matter of days? or a week? or in a year?

    I'm sure you do remember the flu, which is called the "Spanish Flu" and just because the nations lied and hide the truth, more than 50million ppl died and some even say 100 million ppl… so is it ethical to lie and cover the reality or be truthful and help for the humanity?

  14. Looking at the recorded deaths vs recorded recoveries paints a very different and somewhat horrifying picture. I don't believe a mortality rate should be based on deaths over reported cases. I think the mortality rate should be based on a ratio between deaths vs recoveries.

  15. Very Interesting. Check out my YT Cannel where I created few videos about this topic and of course the solution using a rational take on the virus!

  16. So in China on the map it shows red because there so many cases. Yet there's only "5" confirmed cases in US. WHY ARE WE RED???

  17. Tomar carbón activo vegetal en ayunas que elimina todo tipo de virus. Tomarlo en un vaso de agua con una cucharada de té de carbón y mezclar bien. El mejor carbón es del bambú.

  18. H1n1 swine flu in California now? That was a brutal one in 2009. I got that one. It was Unconfirmed. It put me out for a month and came back an hit me again for a few more weeks. Worst flu ever.

  19. All of you people in the comment section are alarmist reactionaries running around screaming "the sky is falling, the sky is falling!"

  20. okay this is not how you measure mortality rate! you measure it deaths vs fucking RECOVERED! jesus how dense are you

  21. The Democrats are blaming Trump for causing the Wuhan corona virus : there was a shortage of pork in China as result of the trade war with the US. The people of China were desperately seeking for meat to celebrate the Lunar New Year, they even went to the mountains or forests to hunt for animals . The virus came from those unusual animals like bats, porcupines, beaver etc…

  22. Death numbers should be rated against those infected several days BEFORE. That statistic , or similarl, implies instantaneous death

  23. Mclovin dice que estados Unidos envio el virus a china para que se mueran mas cantidad de su población ya que son muchísimos y estaban dominando la industria alimentaria con sus supermercados chinos , también con sus diversos productos ya sean juguetes para niños o productos de estica , también ropa y demas en todos los países y páginas por internet, y si seguían asi ya iban a ser potencia mundial, cosa que Estados unidos y los judíos NO quieren, porque ellos nos quieren controlar a TODOS , ellos dominan el mundo , con medicina, armas nucleares, aviones,comida,marcas, televisión,el mundo del cine,el capitalismo….esa es la verdad amigos, Estados Unidos es el malo junto con los judíos,hacen muchas cosas como por ejemplo endeudar países con la mentira de que…. "es para ayudar a los países subdesarrollados a salir adelante" ….con el FMI …pero es solo para prestar sus sucios dólares que por cierto (solo los imprimen y no lo hacen de la forma correcta, ya saben con el deposito de oro que todo pais tiene que tener por cada cierta cantidad de dinero que se imprime, eso es algo ilegal ) , de esa forma prestan (ejemplo) 200 dólares y el país que pidió prestado ( a causa de presidentes judíos o corruptos, manejados por estados unidos) , le terminan devolviendo 1.000 , que es mucho mas de la mitad , y de esa manera nos endeudan mas, yo estoy endeudado desde que nací y apenas mis hijos terminaran de pagar la deuda, eso hace que estemos constantemente pagando deudas de nuestro pais, con nuestro trabajo, que significa mas horas de trabajo y menos dinero, mas impuestos , ESO es lo que no nos deja salir adelante ,por los presidente corruptos como Donald Trump, Mauricio Macri, etc entre muchísimos mas,. Que obviamente eso es controlado por poderes mayores a la presidencia y que son familias antiguas de mucho poder que talvez pertenecen a sextas , que son las que controlan el mundo. Por eso habría que unir países a todos los que hablamos español latino, los latinoamericanos somos hermanos!!! No hay que dividirnos con peleas absurdas del pasado , hechas por personas que ya no existen, habría que unirse, unir fuerzas, pero ya mclovin se fue por las ramas.

  24. A question that arises is, is the corona virus not just a normal flu virus (it is winter in China currently) and have been exploited by some entities to just spread panic and to make large amount's of money? There are reports that some nurses that had the virus are cured now without a cure? China has i thing more than 1.5 billion people with 132 claimed corona virus deaths while California Flu this year is 149 as stated in the video. At this stage I smell a rat, but this might drastically change in coming days.

  25. There is a difference between Mortality Rate and Fatality Rate.
    Mortality Rate = Disease Specific Deaths in a populace in a specific period of time / All Deaths (non-Specific) in a Population in the same specific period of time.

    Fatality Rate = Disease Specific Deaths in a populace in a specific period of time / All infections of the specific disease in the populace in the same period of time.

    I'm just spitting hairs because as he is obviously talking about a "Disease Specific Mortality Rate" or Fatality Rate here.

  26. Some of us including children are immune deprived my friend and I are some also Yes the media is responsible for all the hype and even we who are retired don't have time to really look into all of the hype. However which is very sad there was a doctor on the radio shaming people for their concern? When isn't understanding and reason a better teacher ? So thanks for this

  27. My family is stocking up on tons of food and we already have suits and gas mask. I think my family is way too prepared. (First time my parents did anything like this)

  28. Dont fear death friends we should adore what time we had on this earth we shouldnt let this worry us except spend what time to make up with your family or seek peace with your mind everyday alive on this cruel earth is a blessing for us miserable race of complicated species 🙂

  29. USA China trade war, USA China financial war, Hong Kong anti China government protest, the Death of Iranian General Suleimani, US biological weapons program in wuhu🤔

  30. Your a wonderful speaker! You make understanding all this so much easier!
    Ps… Im obsessed with your amazing handwriting and how your notes are so clear and informative

  31. There is a much bigger mortality rate than we know. The people getting the virus is growing fast and it takes time as we know to become severe, There have been approx 250 died and 250 recovered. So if you make a note of how many have the virus on 31st January versus how many die in the next 14 days, you will get the perspective.

  32. Question: how long does the virus stay active and alive if say coughed on a surface? When a person recovers, that is due to his antibodies, but how long does the virus externally remain infective?

  33. Mortality rate of Corona virus is less compare to SARS doesn't means this is any less dangerous then SARS just that healthcare in 2020 Is way better equipped in 2020 compare to 2003 when china wasn't so well prepared for such outbreaks today they HV experience to fight such outbreaks hence less dealths .
    But Corona virus remains deadly

  34. Since you are a doctor, I would think you would not compare ongoing data with data that already confirm. Lack of knowledge here is real. You have done plenty of data analyst in your career. When all the cases are confirm and no more cases you can compare to SARS.

  35. This analysis is like conspiracy. Nobody knows real number of infected ppl because big lack of test kits reported, also numbers of dead ppl are bullshit. We had 11 death bodies on twitter from 49 deaths in 11 mil. city. So 25% of all deaths was filmed in Wuhan city? Ah… You belive China now? Its communist regime trying to hide all negative! WHO is only Chinese puppet like they were in 2003 SARS epidemic. These liars will cause many deaths and human tragedies yet and hope they will be punished hardly for that!

  36. What if, the Chinese gov't isn't reporting/counting deaths by "viral pneumonia" that are actually
    caused by undiagnosed novel 2019 corona virus?

    They only have so many test kits and hospitals that are able to diagnose novel 2019 corona virus.

  37. Sadly, and eventually, a study will have to be made as to the number of people dying because of buildings collapsing, and again China will be a good country to start that. I have enough experience in building construction to know that you can not build a 1000 bed hospital in less than a month, just to run the electrical wires for the many systems operating in a building such as a hospital will take months to build and weeks of testing, and I haven't even mentioned the pouring of concrete and how it needs to cure before another floor is added to the building. China is manufacturing a huge disaster for its own people.

  38. If the actual deaths are 425 and the actual confirmed recovered are 550, the real death percentage in the end is approximately 77%. There is no reason to believe that the 20,000 currently infected will result in percentages than have already been observed as there is no cure nor preventative.

  39. I believe I have the flu dont know if it h1n1. Body aches, fevers ,nauseated and diarrhea. I did get the flu shot. So I figured why go to the dr/emergency room. It's been now 9 days

  40. I think it’s misleading to say the mortality rate is 2.2-2.3%. The number of people who have recovered is significantly lower than the the number of people infected. People can be infected and on supportive care for weeks before death.

    Another reason comparing it to the SARS numbers at this point in time is inaccurate as it hasn’t reached completion in patients.

  41. Concerning the mortality rate, in China, there's a potential problem of under-reporting deaths. They'll mark COD as whatever other condition they suffered from.

  42. You cannot compare the Corona virus with the flu, the mortality rate of the Corona virus is MUCH higher than the flu. For the flu it's less than 0.1%, for Corona it's estimated to be around 3% with good treatment. There is no vaccine for the Corona virus and treatment is complicated, isolation is required and special protection for the doctors. Only looking at the number of people dying doesn't tell the whole story. If everyone in the world gets the flu then that's a disaster already, but with Corona, that's a completely different story.

  43. From Wuhan I can tell you that. All the confirmed cases are in the hospital. If you have a fever here you are getting quarantined with the rest until they prove you don’t have it.

  44. The flu virus can only live for 24hrs outside of a host whereas the corona virus can live up to a week outside a host on virtually any surface unlike the flu. At this point its not really about the body count. It is about the rate of infection. The corona virus is just getting started and at this rate will supersede the flu virus by both infection rate and body count by next winter.

  45. The number of people that have died can be very close to accurate (known) the number of people infected is a joke (unknown). But we can certainly deduce the number infected greatly exceeds the number that have been clinically diagnosed. If the number is 5,000 known infected it wouldn't surprise me if the actual number (that aren't officially diagnosed) is 100 times that. With a net effect of a drop in mortality rate of negligible.

  46. Have you seen the videos medical professionals have put out from inside China?
    A head doctor desperately trying to get help from outside resources because his hospital is so full the sick and dead are laying in the floors of the hallways
    A research nurse screaming crying and wailing in a total nervous breakdown while the rest of the researchers vacantly proceed researching on their consoles
    The various RN's, PA's, and MD's making their own videos saying what's really happening.
    From what they report, and they stake their reputation on it, the number of sick is off by about a factor of 10, and the number of dead is actually about 4000% higher. . . I can't say for sure, obviously, without actual proof in paper form, but these people showed their situation, fully covered patients lying motionless, 15 in one hallway in one cellphone video.
    This disease is strong, but we are stronger.
    Mass arrests, home barrings, concentration camps and corpse burnings have begun.
    God bless all you medical professionals out there. This is your moment to shine. God be with you.

  47. It has been said below and it was something pointed out during SARS, it is deaths versus cured for mortality rate, as of today 908 deaths v 3281 cured and discharged, mortality rate of 27% thus far

  48. Please stick to common sense and mathematics!
    Death is an "outcome" like recovery is.
    So by common sense and mathematics, one should consider both outcomes.
    The almost global wrong estimation of dividing deaths by total cases (that are still without an outcome: cure or death) = 2.2% is WRONG!
    The mortality rate of CoronaVirus is 20%; 910 cases died versus 4579 cases recovered.

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